These are the two major reasons why investors are betting against Italy, as discussed a 3/9 Forbes article. The number of manufacturing jobs in the US stood at 12.3 million during December. (1) The old normal vs. the new abnormal for Fed policymaking. The bottom line is that on closer inspection, the EMU doesn’t stand out as particularly cheaper than the US. There was another similar outsized increase during 1982 and 1983 when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker lowered interest rates to revive the economy from a severe recession. (2) Distributing losses. Pigs can’t fly. Our business model has always been based on going viral: “If you like our products and services, tell your friends about us.”, Smith famously wrote: “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest.

(8) Trump’s Rules for Wheeler Dealers: Negotiate from your strength, and find their weakness. 3).

He is eventually adopted by an Australian couple. 10). Or maybe it was a delayed reaction to the Fed’s widely expected rate hike last week. When they diverge for a while, the model forces us to explain why this is happening and can reveal important inflection points in the relationship. 1). To paraphrase John Lennon, “All we are saying is give fair trade a chance.”. (6) Lots of Financials making the grade. (1) Jeff Bezos and Sigourney Weaver both have powerful exoskeletons. The youngest of them, born in 1964, won’t do the same until 2029. He added that while congressional Republicans probably won’t be able to meet these aggressive timelines, procedural obstacles won’t be to blame. 17). The article states that 30.7% of new auto loans in Q3 had repayment periods of 73 to 84 months, up from 27.5% the year prior.

“Secular stagnation” was a thesis popularized during 2013 by Harvard Professor Larry Summers--former Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton and a card-carrying Keynesian. President Trump’s tax cuts probably won’t be as big as GOP candidate Trump’s proposals. We took a look at the retail and auto industries last week in the 3/30 Morning Briefing. … So, as interest rates drop, investors tend to bid prices higher, partly on the expectation of better earnings. David Butters, the CEO of Navigator Holdings, said that having a fellow executive on the inside track of the White House will finally allow business leaders to make a difference. In the Eurozone, the volume of retail sales excluding motor vehicles edged down in November from October’s record high (Fig. The drop was the biggest for any month since November 2008, and news of the decline sent the stock price of car rental company Hertz Global Holdings tumbling, a 3/27 Bloomberg article reported. Even his mother is an addict. 4). Since becoming the sole president and COO in 2009, Cohn made at least $123 million in total compensation. (9) 27 Club. (2) Leading indicators. Presumably, it was to ease concerns that the FOMC might raise rates more quickly if inflation rises above 2%.

Motor vehicle loans have risen 59% since the recent low during Q3-2010 to an all-time high of $1.1 trillion at the end of last year (Fig. Unlike the ECRI Weekly Leading Index—which undoubtedly includes numerous financial variables (such as the S&P 500 and the high-yield credit spread) and fundamental ones—our index is driven by just three fundamental ones: jobless claims, industrial commodity prices, and Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index. 18). In 2009, Mexico slapped taxes of up to 25% on more than 90 different US farm goods because the US lawmakers delayed the process of allowing Mexican truckers on the US roads, as specified under NAFTA. Excluding petroleum shipments, this broad measure of business sales of goods barely grew during this energy recession. Together, they had inflows of $78.4 billion during December, the best monthly pace since December 2007. Perhaps doing more to protect property rights might stem the capital outflow. Consider the following: (1) Zweig. 1). Leo thinks the deal will go through under the new Trump administration. Valuation measures are elevated across the board, for sure. Of course, there is a third scenario in which the economy falls into a recession.

Strategy: Spirited Earnings.

Since then, the Energy sector has weighed on the S&P 500, with a decline of 12.1%. Poland’s M-PMI increased from 50.2 to 54.3 in the two months through December. The index’s forward P/E has fallen to 6.5 (Fig. The idea was to eliminate multiple layers of tax that would accrue on an item that was manufactured in multiple countries before resulting in a finished good. We aren’t surprised since we noted just last week that the sum of exports plus imports is highly correlated with China’s railways freight traffic, which rose sharply during the second half of 2016 (Fig. Frankly, times change. (3) Lots of Financial industries basking in the sun. The yield curve has steepened, but is still flatter than it has been over most of the past nine years. “But the budget process rules prohibit more than one tax or spending reconciliation bill from being considered in response to the instructions included in a budget resolution and ACA includes both tax and spending provisions. It’s part of our ethos as a country, as [it is] part of Europe’s ethos as a continent.” However, the Big Bundle will erode, and sports-only companies that overpaid for sports rights relative to market size will suffer. 9). During March, the European Union and Eurozone ESIs were at cyclical highs (Fig. (9) Valuation-dependent: Fed officials saying market is “a little rich” and “a little frothy.” (10) Dudley wants to add more fruit juice to the punch bowl. Absolutely. Already, the EPA under Scott Pruitt has repealed a rule enacted under Obama that required oil and natural gas companies to provide the EPA with information about methane emissions. 2 and Fig. (9) EMU MSCI is relatively cheap, but populist politics may be more troublesome in Eurozone than in US. Americans are crazy about sports. In the Eurozone, the volume of retail sales excluding motor vehicles edged down during December, but it was up by 1.1% y/y (Fig. 5). In December, the headline rate was 1.6% y/y, while the core rate was 1.7% y/y (Fig. The ECB still has slightly negative rates on bank reserve deposits (Fig. The US also has the “world’s leakiest tax system,” which means that cadres of lawyers have dreamt up ways to avoid taxes. The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25bps on December 16, 2015 and again on December 14, 2016 to a range of 0.50%-0.75%. (9) Global PMIs were solid in January. While it certainly seems like the melt-up scenario is underway, it may be justified if Trump delivers what the bulls expect. While the country may be split on Trump, his election has boosted overall consumer confidence. However, the credit markets don’t trust the polls anymore following the widely unexpected results of the Brexit vote and US election. But his protectionist “America First” rhetoric, championing bringing jobs and manufacturing capacity back to the US, should squelch any optimism that better growth in the US will be shared with the rest of the world through the US trade deficit. That would certainly attract the attention of Trump’s tweets. Also notable is that the yield spread between high-yield corporate bonds and the US Treasury 10-year bond yield fell last week to the lowest since September 9, 2014 (Fig.

6). President Barack Obama didn’t officially give a State of the Union address in 2009, and no president since John F. Kennedy has called his first speech before Congress a “State of the Union.” Nevertheless, Trump’s will be closely followed and parsed by investors for any signs that the administration’s tax reform or infrastructure programs might be delayed.

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